If the Patriots lose the Super Bowl, it will be either because of turnovers -- perhaps the most unpredictable game-changer in all of sports -- or because they can’t tackle Eli Manning.
The Giants upset the 18-0 Patriots four years ago when Manning escaped a big rush on back-to-back plays on the winning drive. The day the Bears traded for Jay Cutler, I asked then-GM Jerry Angelo about those two plays and asked him if that played a part in trading for Cutler, who was sacked an NFL-low 11 times that year in Denver. Angelo said it was a big part, that NFL quarterbacks couldn't afford to be statues anymore and needed to extend plays with their feet.
But Cutler isn’t Eli Manning. When he avoids a rush, he usually runs. That’s good too, as Aaron Rodgers showed by running for six first downs in Green Bay’s playoff loss to the Giants. But it's even better if your quarterback can scramble and buy time to find open receivers deep down field, and Manning’s greatness lies in his ability to do that better than any quarterback since Fran Tarkenton.
ERIC GAY | THE ASSOCIATED PRESS New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning holds up a foam finger during Media Day for NFL football's Super Bowl XLVI Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2012, in Indianapolis.
Manning was sacked 28 times this year, seventh-fewest in the league, even though Don Banks of SI.com reports the Giants gave up 220 quarterback pressures, 15 more than any other team.
According to footballoutsiders.com, Eli Manning has the 15th-lowest sack rate in NFL history. Not once this year has he been sacked on a play that took longer than 3.6 seconds. Tom Brady has eight sacks that took that long.
As for Cutler, Ronde Barber once sacked him in 0.3 seconds this year, four times quicker than any other sack all season. And you wonder why I keep saying the Bears' No. 1 need is offensive linemen. Yes, the Bears can run block, but they are one of the worst collections of pass blockers I've ever seen. Not even Eli Manning or Fran Tarkenton could avoid a pass rusher who gets there in 0.3 seconds. And if the Bears don't get better pass blockers, Jay Cutler will probably get injured again. And, even if he doesn't, he'll never be the quarterback the Bears think he can be.
By the way, I found it interesting that Eli's brother Peyton is even harder to sack, ranking No. 2 hardest of all time, even though he doesn't scramble. The best way to avoid a sack will always be getting great protection and/or throwing the ball away quickly. But throwing the ball quickly doesn't lead to big plays. That can be seen by the No. 1 all-time hardest quarterback to sack: Steve Walsh. Other than quarterbacking the Bears to their only playoff win in the Dave Wannstedt era, avoiding sacks was the only impressive thing Steve Walsh ever did in the NFL. (On the other hand, he was about the only good backup quarterback the Bears had for a decade or so).
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