Rick Santorum is leading Mitt Romney by 8 points, according to a CNN poll released Sunday night. We have seen time and time again that the nationwide GOP electorate has jumped on the bandwagon of a candidate once they win a few contests. In a nutshell, they want a winner -- even if it's Mitt Romney. They don't care who it is, just as long as that candidate can beat Obama.
This leads me to believe that the Michigan and Arizona contests will be pivotal for the Romney campaign. Unless Mitt Romney wins both states, he will have a very difficult time winning more than three or four of the ten super Tuesday contests the week later (most of them are Midwestern, social values states). And in one of those super Tuesday states, Santorum isn't even on the ballot.
The super Tuesday states are as follows:
- Alaska - lean Santorum
- Georgia - lean Gingrich
- Idaho -lean Santorum
- Massachusetts - lean Romney
- North Dakota - lean Santorum
- Ohio - lean Santorum
- Oklahoma - lean Santorum
- Tennessee - lean Santorum
- Vermont - lean Romney
- Virginia - Romney
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